Super Bowl - Cardinals Vs. Steelers
Posted on January 30, 2009 | 2:00 PM ET Filed under:NFL Betting: Super Bowl XLIII
Since an initial bobble in the line and a quick drop in the total, Oddsmaker.com's numbers on Super Bowl XLIII have held steady. As of Thursday morning, three days before kickoff, Oddsmaker was listing the Pittsburgh Steelers as seven-point favorites over the Arizona Cardinals with a total of 46.5.
Pittsburgh was also listed at -245 on the Oddsmaker moneyline, with Arizona getting +205.
But of course, that's not all Oddsmaker is offering on the Big Game. Oddsmaker is listing the Steelers at -4 for the first half, with a total of 23.5; at -.5 with a total of 10 for the first quarter; -3 and 13.5 for the second quarter; -.5 and 10 for the third quarter; and -.5 and 13 for the fourth quarter.
Oddsmaker.com will hold off on posting a line and total for the second half of the game until the first half has been completed.
And that's not to mention the dozens of Super Bowl proposition wagers available at Oddsmaker.com.
For a little recent historical perspective, four of the last nine Super Bowls have been lined at exactly seven points. And while the favorites won all four of those games (Indianapolis over Chicago in SB 41, New England over Philadelphia in SB 39, New England over Carolina in SB 38, and St. Louis over Tennessee in SB 34), only one – the Colts over the Bears – covered the spread. The Titans pushed the Rams, losing 23-16, and the Panthers and Eagles both covered vs. the Patriots, each falling by three points.
Twenty of the last 41 Super Bowls have gone over their totals (there was no total posted on Super Bowl I). And in recent seasons, Super Bowl totals have trended toward the unders. The last four Super Bowls have stayed under their totals, as have six of the last nine. Last year, in a game pegged with an O/U of 54, the Giants and Patriots combined to score 10 points through the first three quarters, and 31 for the game.
Pittsburgh has been favored by seven points or more three times this season, and they've won and covered all three of those games.
Meanwhile, Arizona has been dogged twice this season by seven points or more, and managed a split; they lost at New England 47-7 getting nine points in Week 16, and won at Carolina in the Divisional Round of the playoffs 33-13 getting 10 points.
The totals are 10-8 in Steelers games this season, which are averaging 37 points, while the O/Us are 13-6 in Cardinals games, which are averaging a healthy 53 points.
For what it's worth, each conference has had its runs of success over the course of the 42 Super Bowls. After Vince Lombardi's Green Bay Packers won the first two AFL/NFL championship games, the AFL/AFC won 11 of the next 13 Super Bowls. The NFC then reeled off 15 wins over the next 16 Super Bowls, including 13 in a row. And since then, the AFC has taken eight of the last 11 Super Bowls.
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